A High-Stakes Budget Balancing Act
As the session began, Oregon legislators were facing the prospect of a roughly $650 million shortfall in the state budget. Economic challenges and new federal tax cuts meant Oregon’s own revenue collection would drop sharply, while the costs of implementing federal changes to healthcare and food assistance raised concerns that critical state services would be left underfunded.
To prepare for the worst, Gov. Tina Kotek and the Legislature asked state agencies to propose ways to cut 5% from agency budgets, including potentially reducing the State School Fund and scaling back many critical programs for students and families. Advocates who feared the worst urged the state to plug any budget deficit by tapping into state reserves held in Oregon’s $1.2 billion education stability fund.
Fortunately, the worst never came to pass. After the session began, state economists forecasted a less dire economic landscape than originally expected, giving legislative budget writers more projected revenue to work with. The Legislature also passed Senate Bill 1507 to partially decouple Oregon’s tax code from the federal tax code, allowing the state to recover $291 million in state tax revenue that otherwise would have been lost.
Rebalancing the $39 billion state budget ultimately required $128 million in cuts, which the Legislature largely achieved by leaving vacant state jobs unfilled instead of cutting direct services to Oregonians. By keeping this biennium’s record-high K-12 budget intact, legislators saved the state’s education reserve funds for a future economic crisis and preserved the current state funding promised to Oregon’s 197 school districts.
While some school districts are still straining to fill mid-year budget gaps, these local shortages are not directly caused—and now won’t be exacerbated—by state funding cuts. That’s good news for now, but economic headwinds and more federal upheaval could paint a different picture next year.
“We are facing large budget deficits in 2027-29 and 29-31,” said Sen. Kate Lieber, co-chair of the Joint Ways & Means Committee. “This budget was a bit ‘minor leagues’ compared to the budgets that are coming ahead of us.”
Like the K-12 budget, early learning and childcare were spared from additional state funding cuts to programs that directly serve children and families. However, the Oregon Department of Early Learning and Care’s budget was already reduced by $45 million in the original 2025-27 budget. While legislators did not restore the lost funding while rebalancing the budget, early childhood advocates managed to secure $67 million for Employment Related Day Care (ERDC), which was projected to run out of funds by January 2027.